当前，中国在世界上日益发挥重要作用，国际影响力持续增强。对于熟悉世界历史的人来说，这不足为奇，因为在过去五千年的历史长河中，中国在大部分时间都称得上是大国或者超级大国。在相当长时间内，全世界没有任何国家能与中国相匹敌。
We live in a new era and China is increasingly playing an important and influential global role. This should be unsurprising for those familiar with history. For most of the past five millennia, China was either a major power or what some might today call a superpower, including long periods when it had no significant competitors anywhere in the world.
你可能来自与中国接壤的十几个国家之一，本国拥有自己的悠久历史和完整的语言；或许你来自欧洲，在帝国辉煌的余烬中啜饮着红茶。无论你身处何方，你大概都听过有人反复描述中国崛起的危险。然而，来自中国的唯一“威胁”或许只是你自助中餐吃得太多。确实，“左将军”会让你烦恼、不安。不过请放心，这只是“左宗棠鸡”，一道菜而已，并不是真的中国人。
Despite all that power and time, you are reading this in English, not Chinese. You might be from one of the more than a dozen countries bordering China, with your own long history and language intact. Or perhaps you're in Europe, sipping a cup of tea amid imperial ruins. Wherever you are, you repeatedly hear about the dangers of a rising China, yet perhaps the only Chinese threat you face is spending too much time at the all-you-can-eat buffet down the street. Indeed, General Tso is a troublesome figure; he'll definitely leave you unsettled, but don't worry, he's chicken and isn't really Chinese.
你可能会说，过去的历史并不能对未来形成保证，历史远比我所说的要复杂。又或者你会说，虽然中国过去一直自我限制，避免像其他全球性大国那样采取过度的帝国行为，但不能保证中国将来不会走大国崛起的老路。
You might argue that old history provides no guarantees for the future, or that history is much more complicated than I've suggested. You can say that China limited itself in the past, avoiding the sort of imperial excesses associated with the rise of other major global powers.
但是，中国的现代化之路并没有像七国集团国家那样诉诸于武力征服、种族灭绝、奴隶制、殖民主义和剥削等手段。这难道不是事实吗？
However, there's no certainty that China won't exploit its newfound power today. And yet, isn't it the case that China has developed as a modern nation without resorting to conquest, genocide, slavery, colonialism, and dispossession, contrary to the historical development of the G7 members?
实际上，诉诸侵略手段不会有未来，不会带来安全，也不会有互惠发展。既然如此，中国又为什么要选择“侵略”这条邪道呢？中国过去和现在都不依靠剥削他国来发展自己，这有别于许多西方国家。西方大国一直以来执着于对其他国家进行系统性的新殖民主义控制，使得“全球南方”中的很多国家深陷“后殖民主义”困境。
In fact, there's no future in such aggression, no security, nor mutually beneficial development, so why take that path now? It's not as though China's development was or is now contingent on exploiting other nations, unlike various Western powers that remain committed to systemic neo-colonial controls, which have kept large swaths of the Global South in a post-colonial morass.
你可能会说，即使中国过去不是帝国主义国家，但它确实曾实行过朝贡制度，把一些国家作为藩属国，并有过极端行为。比如，大约一千年前，中国对现在的越南北部就采取过短暂的极端行动。又或许你会提起，几百年前中国清朝时期曾攻打过朝鲜半岛。
You might argue that even if China avoided outright imperialism in the past, it did practice a complicated tributary state system and sometimes did engage in excesses, e.g., for a short period in what is today the northern part of Vietnam, around a thousand years ago. You might even argue that China overreached at one point centuries ago on the Korean peninsula.
中国从未否认过这些历史，但这与美国在西半球主张的“昭昭天命”或其在“911”事件后入侵、征服、占领伊拉克的侵略行为截然不同。同样，中国的这些历史与拿破仑试图统治整个欧洲、亚历山大大帝出兵印度、蒙古骑兵横扫大半个欧亚大陆也没有任何可比性。可以说，中国历史上的这些小规模的、短暂的例外行动，事实上反而证明了这样一条规律：无论过去还是现在，中国总体上没有侵略过其他国家。
Nevertheless, without dismissing these histories, the examples are rather different from the U.S. asserting, for example, Manifest Destiny in the Western Hemisphere, or the right to invade, conquer, and occupy Iraq after 9/11. They have nothing in common with Napoleon trying to rule all of Europe, Alexander in India, or the Mongols conquering a very large part of Eurasia. In fact, in China's case, one might say these rather small and brief exceptions actually prove the rule—that China has generally avoided aggression against other countries, past and present.
你可能还会说，中国对西藏和新疆的主权声索就是一种霸权。但你要知道，这些地区自古以来就是中国领土，这些史实都有据可查。或许你还会提到反华鹰派频繁举出的例子：中国对南海、钓鱼岛的主权声索、中印边界争端。然而，中国对这些地区的主权植根于历史。跟其他国家一样，中国必须维护其无可争辩的主权和合法权利，因为具有侵略性的外部势力企图把这些地区作为中国的软肋并加以利用。
You might argue that China's assertions of sovereignty over Xizang or Xinjiang are consistent with hegemony, yet, these areas have been Chinese territory since ancient times with well-documented historical facts. Or perhaps you'll reference the frequently cited examples by anti-China hawks: Beijing's territorial claims in the South China Sea, the Diaoyu Islands, or its boundary dispute with India. However, these assertions are rooted in history, and like any other country, China must assert its indisputable sovereignty and legal rights, especially as aggressive foreign powers try to exploit these areas like a soft underbelly.
可能有人会争辩说，不管中国意图是好是坏，美国都会挑起冲突，就像它对待俄罗斯那样步步进逼。美国也会像搞北约东扩那样逐步扩大“奥库斯”，并利用自身对全球金融体系的控制，凭借其通过举债而发展起来的军事力量，极力破坏亚太地区稳定。同时，美国还会发动经济战，鼓励对华技术“脱钩”，减少中国在营商、贸易和经济增长方面的吸引力。在此情况下，你可能就会把“修昔底德陷阱”和“文明冲突论”等有问题的历史叙事当成家常便饭。若果真如此，你要么是无知，要么就是刻意充当战争贩子和谎言散播者的同谋。
You might contend that, regardless of China's intentions, the U.S. will provoke conflict. Step-by-step, as it did against Russia, the U.S. could expand AUKUS as it did with NATO, leveraging its control over the global financial system and its debt-financed military strength to destabilize the Asia-Pacific, while simultaneously waging economic warfare and encouraging tech decoupling to make China a less attractive place for business, trade, and development. In this context, you might also normalize problematic historical narratives such as the Thucydides trap or the clash of civilizations. But if that's the case, then you're either a victim of ignorance or willfully made yourself complicit with warmongering and the perpetuation of lies.
事实上，西方对中国的恐惧由来已久。早在19世纪末，西方国家就颁布法律驱逐中国移民，并制造出让人恐惧的种族主义叙事，包括“黄祸论”等。“黄祸论”后来还与上世纪50年代以及整个冷战时期的“红色恐慌”交织在一起。历史上，美国曾经认为，经济发展会导致中国政治体系崩溃，中国便会温顺地接受美国的随意塑造，西方也仅仅在这段时期才不惧怕中国。但上述情形并未出现。因此，美西方不再炒作“中国崩溃论”，而是重新翻炒“中国威胁论”。
In fact, fearing China is nothing new. It was a popular theme in the late 1800s, when Western countries enacted laws to exclude Chinese immigrants and developed fear-inducing, racist narratives. These included the yellow peril myth that later intersected with the Red Scare during the 1950s and throughout the Cold War. Perhaps the only time the West didn't fear China was when the U.S. convinced itself that China's economic development would eventually cause the political system in Beijing to collapse, making China malleable to Washington's whims. That didn't happen, so exit the collapse thesis, and welcome back the threat thesis.
远在明朝时期，中国的发展就令到访的西方人大惊失色。但是，当时西方人的恐惧与对华经济或军事竞争无关。相反，这种恐惧更多缘于中国对西方根本不感兴趣。当时，中国总体上对西方文明、宗教、艺术或科学以及西方人的白皮肤和金发碧眼都很不以为然。所以，想象一下，当西方人在“唯一真神”上帝的鼓舞之下，千里迢迢来到中国，洋洋自得地展现自己的种族和文化“优越性”时，对面的中国人却只是兴致索然地打了个哈欠：这确实让西方人怀疑人生！
But even before the modern period, Western visitors to the Ming (1368-1644) court were intimidated by Chinese development. However, this fear doesn't seem to have been related to real or potential economic or military competition. Rather, it was more about the fact that China didn't seem that interested in the West at all. In fact, China on the whole then wasn't too impressed with Western civilization, religion, art, or science, nor with white skin, blonde hair, or blue eyes. So imagine showing up, quite confident in your racial and cultural superiority, buoyed by your faith in the one true God, only to be met with a polite yawn: an existential crisis indeed!
如今，美国恐惧中国，不是因为中国对美国构成了直接威胁，而是因为中国以其不同的政治、经济制度和发展道路给美国及受美国影响的国家出了难题。美国尤其担心其他国家最终可能会在中国的带领下放弃作为超国家货币的美元，导致美国金融体系崩溃。此外，美国政府功能失调，国家脆弱不堪，社会发展急剧衰落。几十年来，美国的财政和货币政策失当，并无休止地对外采取错误冒险行动，这已经反噬美国自身。美国人的确害怕很多事情，比如枪支滥用、社会两极分化、无法无天的科技公司和制药公司、老旧的基础设施、糟糕的航空和铁路安全、野火、极端天气等问题。此外，美国对绿色创新长达半个世纪的压制，最终导致其两大经济支柱——石油和传统汽车行业几近落伍。但是这种恐惧跟中国无关，美国只是将自己的问题“甩锅”给中国而已。
Today, the U.S. is afraid of China, not because China poses a direct threat to the U.S., but because China's alternative political and economic systems and development path pose difficult questions for the U.S. and those under its influence. In particular, the U.S. fears that eventually, led substantially by China, the world may abandon the dollar as the supranational currency, leading to the collapse of the U.S. financial system. Furthermore, the US feels vulnerable given political dysfunction in Washington, which has left U.S. society in steep decline. Decades of fiscal and monetary mismanagement and endless foreign misadventures have taken their toll. Americans do have much to fear: guns, polarization, unscrupulous technology and pharmaceutical companies, crumbling infrastructure, poor airline and railway safety, wildfires and extreme weather, to name a few. Meanwhile, a half-century of suppressing green innovation has left the old backbones of the U.S. economy — namely the oil and legacy automotive industries — vulnerable to irrelevance. But this fear isn't really about China; it's about blaming China for your own sad state of affairs.
无论你有何想法，无论你主张什么，最后请你考虑以下情况。假设你所说的都是对的，尽管中国并没有诉诸任何侵略手段，却反而从外敌侵略导致的废墟中崛起为大国，国力日益强盛，全球影响持续增强。这时你会说：“这就是理由，我们必须尽快阻止中国这个庞然大物。”但是，亲爱的傻瓜，即使在中国国力最弱的时候，西方对中国的压制都以失败告终。现在中国渐强，而西方渐弱，西方还有多大可能阻止中国崛起？因此，相信中国的承诺，与中国开展合作，确保人类命运共同体的愿景得以实现，是不是更加明智呢？
Whatever you think, whatever you argue, consider the following in closing. Let's say you're right, that China has indeed risen as a major power, emerging from the ruins visited upon it by foreign aggression, and despite not resorting to such aggression itself, has become more powerful and globally relevant than ever before. You say, Well, that's why we must stop this juggernaut before it's too late. And yet, dear fool, that already failed when China was at its absolute weakest. What chance do you have now, with China stronger and you weaker? Wouldn't it be more sensible to take China at its word and work with Beijing to ensure its vision of a community with a shared future is realized?
无论你从哪个角度看中国，包括感性、理性、历史、逻辑的角度，你唯一需要担心的事，可能就是享用太多中餐而导致胆固醇过高。来吧！拿起筷子挑战“左宗棠鸡”！你不会输的！如果你实在用不惯筷子，那还是继续用刀叉吧。
Whatever your perspective — emotional or rational, historical or logical — when it comes to China, the only thing to worry about might just be your cholesterol. So, pick up a pair of chopsticks and challenge General Tso to a duel. You can't lose. But if things go south, feel free to switch to a knife and fork.
作者：约瑟夫·格雷戈里·马奥尼，华东师范大学政治与国际关系学院教授、东南大学中国特色社会主义发展研究院研究员、中金鹰和平发展基金会高级研究员
来源：2022年4月22日 习近平外交思想和新时代中国外交网站